The Republican Party Just Can’t Understand the Bell Curve

For a long time I've been wondering what the Republican Party doesn't understand about the Bell Curve.  It seems like the Republican Party goes further and further to the right every election.  I used to be a moderate Republican, but like many people I know, the party has passed me up by taking a wide right turn.  I am actually surprised that the Republican Party has done as well as it has.  The Bell Curve is a relatively simple concept.  The population is concentrated to the middle of the Bell Curve; as you move away from the center of the Bell Curve, the density decreases.  A political Bell Curve would have independents in the center of the graph, the Democrats on the left side getting more liberal moving away from the center to the left, and the Republicans on the right side of the curve, getting more conservative moving away from the center to the right. 

As a candidate moves towards their own end of the curve, they’re moving away from the dense population center and closer to the sparse end of their side; in doing so, they start to lose the independent voters that are closer to the other end of the curve.  Conservatives that are to the right of the Republican candidate aren't going to vote for the Democratic candidate, and liberals to the left of the Democratic candidate aren't going to vote for the Republican candidate.  In other words, as a candidate moves away from the center toward their side of the curve they aren't gaining votes from their base, but they are losing votes from the independents. 

This isn't rocket science, but after the election I actually heard a conservative pundit say that Romney lost the election because he wasn't conservative enough.   The ironic thing about this phenomenon is that as the Republican Party gets more conservative, more Democrats are elected.  Therefore, as the GOP gets more conservative, the country is led by more liberal leaders.

A Shout Out to the Voters Back Home In Indiana

The first Senator that I ever voted for was Republican Senator Dick Lugar of Indiana. I have always thought that Dick Lugar was one of the best senators in U.S. Senate.  Dick Lugar is the most senior Republican in the Senate, and he's highly respected by both parties.  One of the reasons that he is so highly respected is that he builds BIPARTISAN coalitions to get things done.  He's also very popular in Indiana; since 1988 he's never received less than 67% of the vote.  In fact, in 2006, the Democratic Party didn't even bother to field a candidate against Dick Luger.

This spring I was shocked and appalled to hear that the Tea Party campaigned against Dick Lugar, and beat him in the Republican primary.  Well, last night, the chickens came home to roost.  On election night, the wonderful electorate in heavily Republican Indiana chose a Democrat over the Republican Tea Party candidate for senate.  In other words, the Tea Party threw out a highly respected Republican senator who was sure to be reelected, and ended up giving the seat to a Democrat.  So, I want to thank the voters back home in The Great State of Indiana for giving the finger to the Tea Party for it's despicable actions against Dick Lugar.

Mitt Romney's Education Reforms

I was reading Mitt's Vision for America.  He's going to   "ensure that every child receives a quality education no matter where they live", and he's going to do that by taking the federal government out of education and empowering the states and the private sector to develop effective programs of their own.  However, the states and private sector can already develop effective programs, the federal government isn't stopping them.  More importantly, the federal government funds education (I believe that about 9% of Arizona's education funding comes from the feds).  If we take the feds out of education, then we lose a significant part of our education funding; of course, we could raise state taxes to make up for the loss of federal funds.  In a related note, I'll pledge to ensure that every child in Alabama receives a quality education - just by staying out of Alabama's education system.